The End of the World Is Just the Beginning
Mapping the Collapse of Globalization
Key Points
- It seems likely that "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan predicts a shift from globalization to de-globalization, driven by U.S. withdrawal from global security and demographic changes.
- Research suggests the book analyzes impacts on transport, finance, energy, materials, manufacturing, and agriculture, with the U.S. and certain countries like the U.K. and Japan potentially benefiting, while others like China may face challenges.
- The evidence leans toward the book arguing that the era of globalization (1950s-2020s) was unique, sustained by U.S. protection, and its end could lead to regional powers and increased global tensions.
Book Summary
Overview
"The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization" by Peter Zeihan, published in 2022, explores the transition from globalization to de-globalization. Zeihan argues that the period from the 1950s to the 2020s was a peak of economic growth and innovation, largely enabled by the United States' role in securing global trade and maintaining open markets, especially during the Cold War. However, with the U.S. stepping back from this role and facing demographic challenges like aging populations, the world is entering a phase of de-globalization with significant consequences.
The book suggests that 2019 was the last great year for the world economy, marking the end of globe-spanning supply chains that relied on U.S. protection. Post-2020, the retiring population lacks sufficient young replacements, leading to higher lending costs and declining investment, a demographic shift that particularly benefits the U.S. due to its large Millennial cohort.
Key Predictions and Impacts
The book examines how de-globalization, starting around 2015, will affect various sectors:
| Sector | Impact |
|---|---|
| Transport | Increased shipping costs and unreliable supply chains due to the lack of U.S. naval protection. |
| Finance | Potential instability in the global financial system as the U.S. dollar's dominance wanes. |
| Energy | Likely oil shortages for most countries, with a shift towards coal, except in a few nations like the U.S. |
| Industrial Materials | Competition for critical resources, with the U.S. better positioned, while countries like China, which processes 90% of rare earth elements, may struggle due to financial and labor shortages. |
| Manufacturing | A decline in East Asia, particularly China, due to demographics and distance, with North America potentially dominating. |
| Agriculture | Disruptions in food production and distribution, leading to potential famines, with countries like the U.S., France, Argentina, and New Zealand likely to have sufficient food, while China may need to reverse urbanization. |
Potential Winners
- United States: Benefits from energy independence via fracking and a strong Millennial generation
- United Kingdom: Favorable demographics with projected population growth
- Japan: Geographic advantages and potential regional power
- France: Internal waterways and higher birth rate (1.83) compared to neighbors
- Argentina: Agricultural self-sufficiency and favorable geography
Potential Challenges
- China: Resource dependency (70% oil imports) and demographic decline
- Germany: Exposed supply routes and demographic challenges
- Russia: Predicted collapse within 50-80 years due to demographics
- Manufacturing-dependent nations with long supply chains
- Food-importing countries without naval power
Future Outlook
The book predicts a future where regional powers emerge, such as Japan, the U.K., Scandinavia, Australia/New Zealand, and Spain/Portugal, with an increased risk of violence and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. is expected to strengthen post-adjustment, while global collaboration may decline.
This shift increases the risk of violence, with nations potentially resorting to aggressive tactics for security, leading to regional blocs dominated by the strongest military powers. The book also discusses the potential for increased piracy, with countries developing their own fleets to seize supply ships, and the emergence of multi-polar trade systems, higher costs, and a breakdown in global shipping.
"The period from the 1950s to the 2020s was an aberration in human history, enabled by U.S. naval power and the American dollar underpinning international markets, especially during the Cold War to counter the Soviet Union."
The world as we know it is undergoing a fundamental transformation. According to Zeihan, we are entering an era where nations will need to become more self-sufficient as the elaborate trade networks built over the last 70+ years gradually break down. The implications are profound for businesses, governments, and individuals worldwide.
Unexpected Detail
An interesting aspect is Zeihan's focus on demographics, noting that the retiring population (late 40s to early 60s from 1990-2020) lacks young replacements, raising lending costs and reducing investment, which is a less commonly discussed factor in globalization discussions.
Zeihan notes that while many discussions of globalization focus primarily on trade, technology, and politics, the demographic shifts happening worldwide may be even more influential in determining which nations prosper and which struggle in the coming decades. Countries with favorable demographic profiles (like the U.S. with its substantial Millennial generation) may have significant advantages over aging nations, regardless of other factors.
Reception and Criticisms
The book has received mixed reviews, with some praising its engaging storytelling and foresight, while others criticize its sensationalist predictions and informal tone. Reviews on Goodreads show 1,406 reviews, with ratings ranging from 5 stars (e.g., by Vovka, 150th book of 2023) to 3 stars (e.g., by Alexandru, due to writing style and predictions).
Critics note several points of contention:
- Zeihan's track record includes correct predictions like the Russia-Ukraine invasion (predicted 2015, actual 2022), but also errors like Turkey attacking Crimea and China collapsing by the 2020s (ongoing debate).
- The assumption of U.S. withdrawal is seen by some as far-fetched, given U.S. citizens' reliance on global goods, and underestimates global collaboration, such as potential UN peacekeeping navies.
- Some view Zeihan as a "pop geopolitics" figure, comparable to Neil DeGrasse Tyson, raising awareness but not academic, with an American exceptionalist bias.
Book Context and Author Background
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist with expertise in energy, demographics, and security who previously worked for Stratfor and holds a postgraduate degree in Asian studies. His book debuted at number 12 on The New York Times nonfiction best-seller list for the week ending June 18, 2022, indicating its broad appeal. It builds on his earlier works like "The Absent Superpower" and "Disunited Nations."
Book Impact Analysis
This comprehensive analysis of Peter Zeihan's 2022 book provides an in-depth look at its arguments, predictions, and implications, drawing from various sources including summaries, reviews, and discussions. The book has garnered significant attention, with 4,700 current readers and 26.9k on Goodreads wanting to read it, reflecting its relevance in geopolitical discourse.
For further reading, "Why Nations Fail" by Daron Acemoglu is recommended as a foil to similar works like "Guns, Germs, and Steel."
Key Citations
- The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Wikipedia page
- The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Summary SuperSummary
- The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Goodreads page
- Book Review: The End of the World is Just the Beginning (Noahpinion blog)
- Discussion about Peter Zeihan's book (Reddit geopolitics)
- Forecasted population growth in the EU (Statista chart)
- The spontaneous death of globalism Part 3 Episode 82 (Irida.tv)